( BW)(CT-IMS-HEALTH)(RX) IMS Health Forecasts 6 to 7 Percent Growth
for Global Pharmaceutical Market in 2006; U.S. Forecast to Grow at 8
to 9 Percent Pace, Up from 6 to 7 Percent in 2005; China Market
Remains Robust, Growing 17 to 18 Percent

    Business Editors/Health Editors/Science Editors

    FAIRFIELD, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 25, 2005--IMS Health
(NYSE: RX), the world's leading provider of information solutions to
the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries, today announced that it
expects global pharmaceutical market growth to remain flat in 2005 at
7 - 8 percent, and is forecasting 6 - 7 percent growth in 2006, with
total market size reaching U.S. $640 - 650 billion.
    "Several key market events are expected to shape the
pharmaceutical industry in 2006," said Murray Aitken, senior vice
president, Corporate Strategy, IMS Health. "These include the
introduction of the Medicare drug benefit in the U.S., expected patent
loss and generic introduction for six blockbuster products, and
continued efforts by local governments to reduce drug spending and
manage patient access to branded pharmaceuticals. While some
pharmaceutical companies are taking the necessary steps to address
these areas, others must start planning now to ensure continued growth
and success."

    Regional Forecasts

    The U.S. market, which accounts for 43 percent of pharmaceutical
sales worldwide, will continue to fuel growth in 2006. IMS forecasts
the U.S. market to grow at an 8 - 9 percent pace, up from an expected
growth of 6 - 7 percent in 2005. Increased access by U.S. seniors to
lower-cost medications through Medicare Part D, and a rebound from the
impact of Cox-2 product recalls and safety issues will help support
this higher level of growth.
    Growth for the five major European markets -- France, Germany,
Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom -- is forecast to be 4 - 5 percent
in 2006, down slightly from this year. Expansion of the reference
price system and mechanisms to encourage generics use are expected to
impact growth. This will be partially offset by the higher spending on
public health and disease awareness programs and the launch of
innovative products. While there is a slight downturn among the major
European countries, the largest markets in Central and Eastern Europe
can expect double-digit growth in 2006 as healthcare systems are
modernized and GDP growth helps finance increasing demand.
    The Japan market will experience a downturn in 2006, with
forecasts showing from 0 - 1 percent growth, down from 5 - 6 percent
growth expected in 2005. This reflects the impact of restrictive
National Health Insurance (NHI) reimbursement listing and biennial
price cuts.
    China continues to emerge as a significant market. Growth will
remain robust at 17-18 percent and the market size will reach $13 - 14
billion in 2006. Strong economic growth and the continued
implementation of the national reimbursement drug list will sustain
high market growth, offset somewhat by price cuts and tighter
cost-containment measures.

    Therapeutic Classes

    Among the major therapy classes, oncology will register the
highest global growth rate of 17 - 18 percent in 2006, fueled by the
rapid uptake of some recently launched breakthrough products that
include Avastin(R), Erbitux(R), Alimta(R) and Tarceva(R), and
increased patient access to these innovative treatments. The statins
class will show growth of 7 - 8 percent despite the increasing
availability of generic forms, as evidence of their efficacy and as
clinical guidelines expand the potential patient population that would
benefit from these treatments. Above-average growth is also expected
in the angiotensin-II, platelet aggregation inhibitors and
osteoporosis classes, fueled by the uptake of new products and
availability of new clinical evidence.

    Manufacturer Implications

    Pharmaceutical manufacturers must take decisive action in a number
of areas to respond to the changes in market conditions and shifts in
their product portfolios. These actions include:

    --  reassessing sales and marketing spend levels and practices

    --  accelerating safety surveillance efforts

    --  investing in health outcomes and pharmacoeconomic studies to
        prove the value of medications; and

    --  pursuing growth in emerging markets such as China, Latin
        America and Eastern Europe

    "Collectively, the pharmaceutical industry must continue its
efforts to enhance its public image and demonstrate its commitment to
the advancement of healthcare," said Aitken. "The pharmaceutical
industry must carefully consider how to adapt its business model to
sustain growth worldwide. Market conditions are changing, the
governments' span of control is growing, and future success will only
be achieved by those manufacturers with innovative products,
demonstrable cost-effectiveness, and productive, evidence-based sales
and marketing approaches."

    About the Forecast

    In forecasting 2006 market performance, there are a number of less
predictable events that may impact overall growth, including major
safety events resulting in product withdrawal or prescribing
restrictions; shifts in regulatory approval standards from their
current levels; actions to apply sudden cuts to drug spending levels;
and public health crises, such as the Avian flu. Figures are derived
from IMS Market Prognosis, a strategic market forecasting publication
that evaluates the impact of key issues on the pharmaceutical and
healthcare industries. Therapeutic level forecasts are derived from
IMS Therapy Forecaster, a unique forecasting system based on detailed
quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Additional analyses have
been applied by IMS consulting and forecasting experts. Growth is
measured in constant dollars to avoid the influence of currency
exchange rates; sales are calculated at the ex-manufacturer level.

    About IMS

    Operating in more than 100 countries, IMS Health is the world's
leading provider of information solutions to the pharmaceutical and
healthcare industries. With $1.6 billion in 2004 revenue and more than
50 years of industry experience, IMS offers leading-edge business
intelligence products and services that are integral to clients'
day-to-day operations, including portfolio optimization capabilities;
launch and brand management solutions; sales force effectiveness
innovations; managed care and over-the-counter offerings; and
consulting and services solutions that improve ROI and the delivery of
quality healthcare worldwide. Additional information is available at
http://www.imshealth.com.

    --30--CT/ny*

    CONTACT: IMS Communications                            
             Barbara Henderson, 610-260-6639                
             bphenderson@us.imshealth.com                   
             or
             Lance Longwell, 610-834-5338   
             llongwell@us.imshealth.com